China’s TB Program Success: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
The Republic of China has done tremendously in the control of TB in the
country as the TB incidence has been significantly declining over the period
2000-2018.It has become imperative at this point to model and forecast TB
incidence in order to understand the future evolution of the epidemic in China
and to assess the impact of TB control measures. In this research article, the
ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in China. The employed annual
data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE
and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting
TB incidence in China. The results of the study indicate that TB incidence will
continue to decline but at a very slow rate from 60.3 in 2019 to 59.2 cases per
100 000/year in 2023. The Chinese government is encouraged to continue
intensification of TB surveillance and control programs in order to maintain
this desirable downward trajectory.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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