Forecasting Confirmed Covid-19 Daily Cases in Equatorial Guinea Using Artificial Neural Networks

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONISAGIT Innovation Centre, Harare, ZimbabweTatenda. A. CHIHOHOIndependent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 3 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 | Pages: 187-196

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 31-03-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503032

Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Equatorial Guinea. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Equatorial Guinea. The applied ANN (12, 12, 1) predictions suggest that daily COVID-19 cases will generally be between 0-10 cases over the out of sample period. Therefore the government is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19.
Keywords

ANN, Forecasting, COVID-19.


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, “Forecasting Confirmed Covid-19 Daily Cases in Equatorial Guinea Using Artificial Neural Networks” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 187-196, March 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503032

References
  1. Althouse BM &Ng YY (2011). Cummings DAT, Prediction of dengue incidence using serach query surveillance. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2011; 5:e1258. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001258 PMID: 21829744
  2. Arora, P., Kumar, H., & Panigrahi, B. K. (2020). Prediction and Analysis of COVID-19 Positive Cases Using Deep Learning Models: A Descriptive Case Study of India, Chaos, Solitons and Fractal, 139: 1 – 9.
  3. Dan W. Patterson (1995) Artificial Neural networks Theory and Applications. Singapore; New York: Prentice Hall.  
  4. Fojnica, A., Osmanoviae & Badnjeviae A (2016). Dynamic model of tuberculosis-multiple strain prediction based on artificial neural network. In proceedings of the 2016 5th Mediterranean conference on embedded computing pp290-293
  5. Gambhir S., Malik SK., & Kumar Y (2018). The diagnosis of dengue disease: An evaluation of three machine learning approaches. International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics 2018; 13:1–19. https://doi.org/10.4018/ijhisi.2018040101 PMID: 3
  6. Guo P., Liu T., Zhang Q., Wang L., Xiao J & Zhang Q (2017). Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11:e0005973. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005973 PMID: 29036169
  7. Kaushik AC & Sahi. S (2018). Artificial neural network-based model for orphan GPCRs.Neural.Comput.Appl. 29,985-992
  8. Kishan Mehrotra., Chilukuri K., Mohan, & Sanjay Ranka (1997) Elements of artificial neural networks. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press 
  9. Laureano-Rosario AE., Duncvan AP., Mendez-Lazaro PA., Garcia-Rejon JE., Gomez-Carro S., & Farfan-Ale J (2018). Application of artificial neural networks for dengue fever outbreak predictions in the northwest coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 2018;3:5
  10. Mudie K., Tan MMJ & Kendall L (2019). Non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of large cohort studies. J Glob Health. 2019; 9:020409. doi:10.7189/jogh.09.020409.
  11. Qazi, A., Fayaz, H., Wadi, A., Raj, R.G., Rahim, N.A., & Khan, W A (2015). The artificial neural network for solar radiation prediction and designing solar systems: a systematic literature review. Journal of Cleaner Production. 104, 1–12 (2015). https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.041
  12. Scavuzzo JM., Trucco F., Espinosa M., Tauro C B., Abril M., & Scavuzzo CM (2018). Modeling dengue vector population using remotely sensed data and machine learning. Acta Tropica 185:167–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.05.003 PMID: 29777650
  13. Smartson. P. Nyoni, Thabani Nyoni, Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2020) PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN GHANA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IJARIIE Vol-6 Issue-6             2395-4396
  14. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni & Tatenda A. Chihoho (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia using artificial neural networks, IJARIIE, 6, 6, 2395-4396
  15. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni., Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2020)  PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IJARIIE-  Vol-6 Issue-6         2395-4396
  16. UNICEF (2020). Equatorial Guinea: COVID-19 Situation Report – #10, 23 July- 26 August 2020.
  17. Weng SF, Reps J, Kai J, Garibaldi JM, Qureshi N (2017) Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data? PLOS ONE 12(4): e0174944. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0174944
  18. WHO. (2010). Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010. Available from: https://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd_report_ full_en.pd
  19. World AIDS Day. (2019). Africa: World Health Organization, 2019. Available from: https://www.afro.who.int/regional-director/ speeches-messages/world-aids-day-2019-messagewho-regional-director-africa-dr
  20. Yan, H., Jiang, J., Zheng, J., Peng, C & Li, Q. A (2006). Multilayer perceptron based medical decision support system for heart disease diagnosis. Expert Syst. Appl. 2006, 30, 272–281.
  21. Zhang G P, “Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model”, Neurocomputing 50: 159–175.