Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality in France Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily
COVID-19 deaths in France. The employed daily data covers the period to 1
January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period to 1January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is
stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in France. The applied ANN (12, 12,
1) model projections indicate that COVID-19 mortality will generally rise in
the out-of-sample period, up to approximately 710 deaths per day over the month
of May 2021.Therefore the government of France is encouraged to continue
applying WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19 including
COVID-19 mass vaccination in order to
achieve herd immunity.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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