International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Daily Covid-19 Case Volumes in Kenya Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new COVID-19 cases in Kenya. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new corona virus cases in Kenya. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases are likely to increase from 80 cases around 1 January 2021 up to an equilibrium point of 1500 new daily cases around 6 March 2021. Therefore the Kenyan government is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 pp. 227-236

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503038

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