International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Daily Covid-19 Cases in Botswana Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new COVID-19 cases in Botswana. The employed daily data covers the period to 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period to 1 January 2020 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new COVID-19 cases in Botswana. The applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate that daily COVID-19 case volume will generally be in the range 0-1400 cases over the period 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2021. Therefore the government of Botswana is encouraged to continue applying WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19 including vaccinating 60 % of the population in order to achieve herd immunity.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 pp. 177-186

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503031

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