Forecasting Daily Covid-19 Deaths in Canada Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily
COVID-19deaths in Canada. The employed daily data covers the period to 1
January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period to 1January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is
stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Canada. The applied ANN (12, 12,
1) model projections indicate thatCOVID-19 related mortality in Canada is
likely to range between 111 and 179 deaths per day over the out-of-sample
period. Therefore the government of Canada is encouraged to continue applying
WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19 including COVID-19
vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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