Forecasting Infant Mortality Rate in Angola Using Artificial Neural Networks

In this paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze infant mortality rate in Angola. The employed annual data covers the period 1980-2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2021-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting infant mortality rate in Angola. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model predictions suggest that over the next decade infant mortality will be around 46 infant deaths/1000 live births per year. Therefore the government should intensify maternal and child health surveillance and control programs in order to reduce infant mortality and to achieve the sustainable development goals by 2030. This should be done in line with the suggested policy prescriptions.