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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Maternal Deaths in Nigeria Using the Arima Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIDepartment of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 3 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 | Pages: 257-263

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 04-04-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503043

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Abstract
Nigeria is among the African countries with very high maternal mortality ratios and there is need to utilize early surveillance tools to understand the future trends of maternal deaths so as to put in place preventive and control measures. In this research article, the ARIMA technique was applied to analyze maternal deaths in Nigeria. The employed data covers the period 2000-2017 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2018-2022. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting maternal deaths in Nigeria. The results of the study suggest that the Nigerian government is ought to allocate more human and financial resources towards maternal and child health to address gaps which exist in the rural and some of the urban healthcare facilities and continuous  health education among communities to promote institutional deliveries on the other hand discouraging home deliveries.
Keywords

ANN, forecasting, maternal mortality.


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting Maternal Deaths in Nigeria Using the Arima Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 257-263, March 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503043

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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