Forecasting TB Incidence in Myanmar Using the Multilayer Peceptron Neural Network
Abstract
Myanmar is a high TB burden country and forecasting methods can assist
uncover the future evolution of the epidemic. In this research paper, the ANN
approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in Myanmar. The employed annual
data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period January 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TB incidence in Myanmar. The results of the study indicate that TB
incidence will remain high at constant level of 326 cases per 100 000
population/year over the period 2019-2023. In order to contribute significantly
to the national control strategy of a TB-free Myanmar, the government should,
among other things, intensify TB surveillance and control programs.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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