Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Egypt Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Egypt. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 related deaths in the country are likely to be around 80 deaths per day in the out-of-sample period. Amongst other policy recommendations, we strongly recommend that the government of Egypt should ensure strict adherence to lock-down measures while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.