Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Egypt Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19
deaths in Egypt. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020
and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate
that COVID-19 related deaths in the country are likely to be around 80 deaths
per day in the out-of-sample period. Amongst other policy recommendations, we
strongly recommend that the government of Egypt should ensure strict adherence
to lock-down measures while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19
pandemic.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Mr. Takudzwa. C. Maradze2 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI3 Mr. Thabani NYONI
Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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