Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in India Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in India. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 mortality in India is likely to equilibrate around 1313 deaths per day especially towards the end of the out-of-sample period. With the recent influx of new COVID-19 vaccines in India, great emphasis should be put on the quick uptake of these vaccines so as to curb the effects of the virus; and of course alongside ensuring strict adherence to COVID-19 safety measures.