Modelling and Forecasting Immunization against Measles Disease in Indonesia Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Abstract
In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze child
immunizations against measles in Indonesia. The employed annual data covers the
period 1983-2019 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2020-2030.
The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the
applied model indicate that the model is indeed stable. The ANN (12, 12, 1)
model projections suggest that child immunization against measles in Indonesia
is likely to remain around 77% per year over the next decade. The government of
Indonesia is encouraged to intensify child health surveillance and control
programs by adopting the suggested recommendations.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Mr. Takudzwa. C. Maradze2 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI3 Mr. Thabani NYONI
Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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