Modelling and Forecasting Immunization against Measles Disease in Madagascar Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to assess child immunization against measles in Madagascar. The employed annual data covers the period 1984-2019 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2020-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting the series under consideration. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections suggest that child immunization against measles in Madagascar is likely to decline from 69% in 2020 to about 62% by 2030. The government of Madagascar is encouraged to intensify child health surveillance and control programs, particularly adopting the suggested policy recommendations.