Predicting TB Incidence in Zimbabwe: Artificial Neural Networks Reveals TB Program Success?
Abstract
Zimbabwe’s HIV/TB program is one of the success stories to tell in the
SADC region. The government with the support of its partners has implemented
robust measures in order to prevent and control TB. The period 2000-2018 has
been characterized by a significant decline in TB incidence as most health
facilities in the country are offering HIV/TB program services. In this study
the artificial neural network technique has been applied. The employed annual
data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE
and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting
TB incidence in Zimbabwe. The results of the study indicate that TB incidence
is likely to continue on a downward trajectory over the period 2019-2023. In
order to contribute meaningfully to the national control strategy of a TB-free
Zimbabwe, the government among other things; should intensify TB surveillance
and control programs.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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