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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Predicting TB Incidence in Zimbabwe: Artificial Neural Networks Reveals TB Program Success?

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIDepartment of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 3 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 | Pages: 380-384

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 01-04-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503066

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Abstract
Zimbabwe’s HIV/TB program is one of the success stories to tell in the SADC region. The government with the support of its partners has implemented robust measures in order to prevent and control TB. The period 2000-2018 has been characterized by a significant decline in TB incidence as most health facilities in the country are offering HIV/TB program services. In this study the artificial neural network technique has been applied. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TB incidence in Zimbabwe. The results of the study indicate that TB incidence is likely to continue on a downward trajectory over the period 2019-2023. In order to contribute meaningfully to the national control strategy of a TB-free Zimbabwe, the government among other things; should intensify TB surveillance and control programs. 
Keywords

ANN, Forecasting, TB incidence.


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Predicting TB Incidence in Zimbabwe: Artificial Neural Networks Reveals TB Program Success?” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 380-384, March 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503066

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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