Prediction of TB Incidence in Cambodia Using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

Cambodia is among the 30 countries in the World with high TB disease burden. Modelling and forecasting the incidence of the disease will help in planning and responding to the epidemic appropriately and timeously. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in Cambodia. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TB incidence in Cambodia. The model predictions suggest that TB incidence will continue to decline but will still remain high around 290 cases/100000 populations/year. We implore the government to intensify TB surveillance and control programs, allocate more financial resources towards TB/HIV program and continue health education among communities to curb the spread of TB.