Prediction of the Annual TB Incidence in Niger Using Artificial Neural Networks

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIDepartment of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 3 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 | Pages: 371-375

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 01-04-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503064

Abstract
In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in Niger. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TB incidence in Niger. The model predictions suggest that TB incidence will continue to decline over the period 2019-2023. Therefore the government is encouraged to intensify TB surveillance and TB control programs among other measures. 
Keywords

ANN, Forecasting, TB incidence.


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Prediction of the Annual TB Incidence in Niger Using Artificial Neural Networks” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 371-375, March 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503064

References
  1. Cao L J & Francis E.H(2003). Tay “Support Vector Machine with Adaptive Parameters in Financial Time Series Forecasting”, IEEE Transaction on Neural Networks, Vol. 14, No. 6, November pages: 1506-1518.
  2. Farooq T, Guergachi A & S. Krishnan (2007). “Chaotic time series prediction using knowledge-based Green’s Kernel and least-squares support vector machines”, Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2007. ISIC. 7-10 Oct. 2007, pages: 373-378.
  3. Fojnica A., Osmanoviae & Badnjeviae A (2016). Dynamic model of tuberculosis-multiple strain prediction based on artificial neural network. In proceedings of the 2016 5th Mediterranean conference on Embedded computing pp290-293.
  4. Kaushik AC &Sahi. S (2018). Artificial neural network-based model for orphan GPCRs.Neural.Comput.Appl. 29,985-992.
  5. Nyoni S. P & Nyoni T (2019a). Forecasting TB notifications at Zengeza clinic, Zimbabwe. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97331/ MPRA Paper No. 97331, posted 02 Dec 2019 10:13 UTC.
  6. Nyoni S. P & Nyoni T (2019b). Forecasting TB notifications at Silobela District Hospital, Zimbabwe.IJARIIE 5(6)2395-4396.
  7. Raicharoen T., Lursinsap C &Sanguanbhoki (2003) “Application of critical support vector machine to time series prediction”, Circuits and Systems. ISCAS ’03. Proceedings of the 2003 International Symposium on Volume 5, 25-28 May, 2003, pages: V-741-V-744.
  8. Vapnik V (1998) “Statistical Learning Theory”, New York: Wiley.
  9. Yan C Q., Wang R B., Liu C H &Jiang Y (2019). Application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in China from 2018-2019.Zhonghua 40(6):633-637
  10. Zhang GP (2003) “Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model”, Neurocomputing 50 (2003), pages: 159–175.