TB Program Success Story in Togo: Evidence from the Multilayer Peceptron Neural Network
Abstract
Modeling and forecasting TB incidence is necessary in order to inform
policy and stimulate an appropriate national response to the epidemic. In this
research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in Togo.
The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample
period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE
and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting
TB incidence in Togo. The model predicts that the incidence of TB will low,
close to 30 cases per 100 000/year over the period 2019-2023.The government is
encouraged to continue on this desirable path by strengthening TB/HIV collaboration.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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