Trend Analysis of Millet Production and Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1981-2018)

The study assessed the trend of millet production in Nigeria and it’s implication on agricultural output (1981-2018). Time series data obtained from archives of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for period of (37) years were used in the study. The data collected were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics such as mean, maximum and minimum with graphs, trend models and Vector Auto Regression (VAR). The result of the study revealed that the trend of millet production has fluctuated considerably over the years but has experienced a fairly constant trend in the last few years while the trend of agricultural output in Nigeria has been experiencing an appreciable level of increase over the years. The growth rate and direction of millet production was 3.6% and decelerating while agricultural output was 4.4% and accelerating respectively during the period of study. There was no co-integration among the variables as a result of the variables having unit roots at different levels therefore; Vector Auto-regression was therefore used to evaluate the short and long run effects of the variables on each other. The result of the millet production model showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.45. The result also showed that the F-statistics (28.8) was positive and significant at 1% indicating the overall significance of the model. The result further showed that the coefficient of millet production (0.249) in the previous year is positive and significant at 1% level of probability as expected. Also, the coefficient of agricultural output (0.236) is positive but not significant. The study therefore concluded that, conscious effort should be made to strengthen the development of new, well-adapted millet cultivars with high yield potential so as to boost millet production and consequently enhance agricultural output.