Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Austria

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new deaths in Austria. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2020 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Austria are likely to rise up to the equilibrium level of 101 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Austria to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and to speed up COVID-19 vaccination.