Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Bolivia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Bolivia. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2021 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Bolivia are likely to rise to almost 2000 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Bolivia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and speed up COVID-19 vaccination in order herd immunity.