Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Colombia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Colombia. The employed data covers the period1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Colombia are likely to remain significantly high over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Colombia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scale up COVID-19 vaccination.