Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Nepal

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Nepal. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2021 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Nepal are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Nepal to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scale up COVID-19 vaccination.