In this research article, the ANN approach was
applied to analyze daily COVID-19 related deaths in Portugal. This study is
based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Portugal for the period 1 January 2020 – 20
April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August
2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of
the applied model show that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19
related deaths in the country. The results of the study indicate that daily
COVID-19 deaths in Portugal are likely to decrease at an increasing rate,
characterized by two peaks over the out-of-sample period. In the out-of-sample
period, the first peak for COVID-19 related deaths is likely to occur around 20
June 2021 while the second peak may be experienced around 23 August 2021. We
recommend that the government of Portugal should ensure adherence to lock-down
measures while creating massive awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well
as scaling up vaccinations.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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