Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Romania

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 related deaths in Romania. This study is based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Romania for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021.The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 related deaths in the country. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Romania are likely to decline significantly over the out-of-sample period. We, however; still recommend that the Romanian government should ensure adherence to lock-down measures while creating massive awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well as scaling up vaccinations. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 848-853

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506148

References

  1. Le, T. T. et al. (2020). The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape, Nature - Review of Drug Discovery, 19 (5): 305 – 306.
  2. Li, Q., et al. (2020). Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-infected Pneumonia, New England Journal of Medicine, 89 (15): 1 – 12.
  3. Rawaf, S., Yamamoto, H. O., & Rawaf, D. (2020). Unlocking Towns and Cities: COVID-19 Exit Strategy, East Mediterranean Health Journal, 26 (5): 499 – 502.
  4. Sardar, T., et al. (2020). Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 139: 1 – 10.
  5. Stonia, A. P., et al. (2020). Deaths by SARS-CoV2 – A Romanian Multi-Centre Comorbidity Study, Research Square.
  6. WHO (2020). https://www.who.int/emergencies/ Retrieved 2020-04-01. 
  7. Worldometers (2020). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Retrieved 2020-09-06.
  8. Wu, F., et al. (2020). A New Corona Virus Associated With Human Respiratory Disease in China, Nature, 579 (7798): 265 – 269.