Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Slovenia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Slovenia. This study is based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Slovenia for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Slovenia are likely to continue to rise up to an equilibrium level of 53 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Slovenia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and to expand the vaccination programme.