Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality in Guatemala

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Guatemala. The employed data covers the period1 January 2020 to 20 April 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that the daily COVID-19 deaths in Guatemala are likely to be between 0 and 65 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Guatemala to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scale up COVID-19 vaccination. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 151-156

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506029

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