Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality in Iraq

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 mortality in Iraq. The employed data covers the period1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period21 April to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 mortality cases in Iraq are likely to decline over the out-of-sample period and reach zero around early May 2021. Therefore there is need for the government of Iraq to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scaling up COVID-19 vaccination. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 413-418

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506072

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