Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality in Japan

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 daily deaths in Japan. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Japan are likely to increase from the start of the forecast period to reach an equilibrium point of approximately 260 deaths per day which will stretch from 20/06/21 to 31/08/21. Therefore there is need for the government of Japan to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerate COVID-19 vaccination.