Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Abstract
In this study, the ANN approach was applied to
analyze COVID-19 daily deaths in the UAE. This study is based on daily COVID-19
deaths in the UAE for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The
out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021.The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study
indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in the UAE are likely to range between 3
and 17 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. There is need for the
government of the UAE to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing
to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerate COVID-19
vaccination.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Chen
J., Qi T., & Liu L (2020). Clinical progression of patients
with COVID-19 in Shanghai, China. J Infect 2020; 80:e1–6.
Huang C.,
Wang Y., Li X (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with
2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020; 395:497–506.
Ministry of
Health, Labour and Welfare (2020). Current status of the novel coronavirus
infection and the response of the MHLW, Available at: https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09290.html
Ministry of
Health, Labour and Welfare (2020). Current status of the novel coronavirus
infection and the response of the MHLW, Available at: https://www.mhlw.
go.jp/stf/newpage_12312.html
Nobuaki
Matsunaga., Kayoko Hayakawa., Mari
Terada., Hiroshi Ohtsu., Yusuke Asai., Shinya Tsuzuki., Setsuko Suzuki., Ako Toyoda.,
Kumiko Suzuki., Mio Endo., Naoki Fujii., Michiyo Suzuki., Sho Saito.,
Yukari Uemura.,Taro Shibata., Masashi Kondo., Kazuo Izumi., Junko
Terada-Hirashima., AyakoMikami., WataruSugiura., and Norio Ohmagari (2020). Clinical
Epidemiology of Hospitalized Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
in Japan: Report of the COVID-19 Registry Japan, Clinical Infectious
Diseases, pp 1-13.
Our World
in Data (2020). Japan: coronavirus pandemic. Available at: https://
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/japan?country=~JPN.
Wu
Z.,&McGoogan JM (2020). Characteristics of and important lessons from the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: Summary of a report of
72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA.
2020; 323:1239–1242. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648 PMID: 32091533
Yang X., Yu
Y., Xu J., Shu H, Xia J., Liu H (2020). Clinical course and outcomes of
critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a
single-centered, retrospective, observational study. Lancet Respir Med. 2020;
8:475–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30079-5 PMID: 32105632.
