Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Antigua and Barbuda
Abstract
Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the
globe, governments continue to be compelled to swiftly find solutions to reduce
infections rates and keep mortality as low as possible. In the current study,
the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and
Barbuda. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Antigua Barbuda
for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast
covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast
evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model show us that the
model is stable and therefore adequate. The results of the study show that
daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda are likely to remain low over the
out-of-sample period. The government of Antigua and Barbuda should ensure the
continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social
distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, in line with
WHO stipulated guidelines.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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