Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Antigua and Barbuda

Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the globe, governments continue to be compelled to swiftly find solutions to reduce infections rates and keep mortality as low as possible. In the current study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Antigua Barbuda for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model show us that the model is stable and therefore adequate. The results of the study show that daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. The government of Antigua and Barbuda should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, in line with WHO stipulated guidelines.