Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Armenia

In this paper, the ANN technique was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 case volumes in Armenia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Armenia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model suggest that the model is stable for forecasting COVID-19 cases in Armenia. The forecasts of this research suggest that daily COVID-19 cases in Armenia are likely to remain very high over the out-of-sample period. We encourage the government of Armenia to continue enforcing and implementing control and preventive measures in order to avoid a possibility of a second wave of infections.