Caused by a novel coronavirus, COVID-19 has
played havoc on many countries across the globe and the Bahamas have never been
an exception. Just like the rest of the world, the country continues to live a
restricted environment in order to prevent exposure to this highly infectious
disease. In this research article, the ANN approach was used to model and
forecast daily COVID-19 cases in Bahamas. This study is based on daily new
cases of COVID-19 in Bahamas for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The
out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model show us that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 daily new
infections in Bahamas. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19
cases in Bahamas are likely to hover around 55 cases per day over the
out-of-sample period. We encourage government of the Bahamas to continue
enforcing control and preventive measures such as mass-media sensitization,
social distancing, face-mask wearing, contact tracing, disinfection and
decontamination of infected areas, washing and sanitization of hands and so on
as advised by the WHO.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Singhal, A., et al. (2020).
Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Gaussian Mixture Model, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 138
(2020): 1 – 8.
Velasquez, R. M. A., &
Lara, J. V. M. (2020). Forecast and Evaluation of COVID-19 Spreading in USA
With Reduced-space Gaussian Process Regression, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 138 (2020): 1 – 9.
