Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Benin

Abstract

In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new COVID-19 cases in Benin. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Benin for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new COVID-19 cases in Benin. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 may disappear in the out-of-sample period. The government of Benin, however; is encouraged to continue implementing interventions with strict adherence to the recommended WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 578-580

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506101

References

  1. WHO (2020a). Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations World Health Organization—Department of Communication Available online: WHO Reference Number: WHO/2019-nCoV/Sci_Brief/Transmission modes/2020.2
  2. WHO (2020b). Statement—Older people are at highest risk from COVID-19, but all must act to prevent community spread World Health Organization—Department of Communication 2020. Available online: http://www.euro.who.int/en/healthtopics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/statements/statement-older-people-are-at-highest-risk-from-covid-19but-all-must-act-to-prevent-communityspread