COVID-19 continues to significantly threaten
human lives and economies around the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was
applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Bhutan. This study is based on monthly new
cases of COVID-19 in Bhutan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The
out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is
stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Bhutan. It is projected that daily
COVID-19 cases in Bhutan are likely to remain significantly very low over the
out-of-sample period. The government should ensure the continued compliance to
control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine,
isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, as well as vaccinations, in consistency
with WHO guidelines on COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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