Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Bosnia And Herzegovina
Abstract
Bosnia and Herzegovina, just like any other
affected country in the globe, was not able to escape the deadly COVID-19
pandemic. The disease has caused a lot of suffering in the country, especially
in terms of loss of life and economic damage. In this piece of work, the ANN
technique was applied to analyze confirmed COVID-19 cases in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Bosnia and
Herzegovina for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample
forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and
forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model tell us
that the model is stable and indeed suitable for forecasting purposes. The
results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Bosnia and
Herzegovina are likely to drop to zero around late May 2021 onwards. Control
and preventive measures should be observed in the country despite the
projections.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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