International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Bulgaria

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweMr. Thabani NYONISAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, ZimbabweMr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOIndependent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 6 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 | Pages: 581-586

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 09-07-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506102

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Abstract
When it comes to public health nowadays, COVID-19 is of serious concern and considered as the supreme crisis of the present era. A surge in the number of patients testing positive for COVID-19 has created a lot of stress and frustration on governing bodies worldwide and they are finding it difficult to tackle the situation. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 case volumes in Bulgaria. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Bulgaria for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria are likely to decline to zero cases per day around mid-June 2021. The government of Bulgaria should continue to ensure that there is compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on. There is also need to embrace the vaccination programme in the country.
Keywords

ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting, Zimbabwe, corona, pandemic


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Mr. Thabani NYONI, Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, “Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Bulgaria” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, pp 581-586, June 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506102

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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