Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Finland

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Finland. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 cases are likely to surge over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Finland to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 248-254

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506045

References

  1. Finnish Government (2020). Corona & Legislation 2020.
  2. Finnish Government (2020). Obligation to work in the healthcare sector secures the adequacy of workforce. 2020. [cited 2020 May 27]. Available from: https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/1410877/ tyontekijan-tyovelvollisuus-turvaa-tyovoiman-riittavyytta-terveydenhuollossa.
  3. Hanna Tiirinki., Liina-Kaisa Tynkkynenb., Markus Sovalac., Salla Atkins., Meri Koivusalo., Pauli Rautiainene., Vesa Jormanainena., & Ilmo Keskimäki (2020). COVID-19 pandemic in Finland – Preliminary analysis on health system response and economic consequences, Health Policy and Technology 9 (2020) 649–662
  4. Jormanainen V., Kaikkonen R., Isosomppi S., Numminen J., Kunnamo I., Salaspuro T., & Nordlund H (2020). In: The Finns quickly found the coronavirus symptom assessment online service: those who responded to the Omaolo coronavirus symptom assessment from 16 March to 15 May, 2020; 2020. p. 1–30.
  5. Maradze, T. C., Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Modeling and Forecasting COVID-19 mortalities in the United States of America using artificial neural networks (ANN). International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):533-539
  6. Maradze, T. C., Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Modeling and Forecasting Child immunization against measles disease in Djibouti using artificial neural networks (ANNs). International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):449-452.
  7. Ministry of Social Affair and Health (2020). Hospital districts instructed to reallocate non-urgent care capacity to treatment of patients infected with coronavirus. 61/2020. Available from: https://stm.fi/en/article//asset_publisher/sairaanhoitopiireja-ohjeistetaansiirtamaan-kiireettoman-h
  8. Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (2020). Ministry of Social Affairs and Health instructs municipalities to take proactive measures to strengthen healthcare and social welfare services. Available from: https://stm.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/stm-ohjeistaa-kuntia-ottamaankayttoon-ennakoivia-toimia-sosiaali-ja-terveydenhuollon-va
  9. Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (2020). Municipalities must secure basic-level health and social services and support the most vulnerable under emergency conditions. 62/2020. Available from: https://stm. fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/stm-kuntien-turvattava-perustason-sosiaali-jaterveyspalvelut-ja-
  10. Naizhuo Zhao., Katia Charland., Mabel Carabali., Elaine O., Nsoesie., Mathieu MaheuGiroux., Erin Rees., Mengru Yuan., Cesar Garcia Balaguera., Gloria Jaramillo Ramirez., & Kate Zinszer (2020). Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008056
  11. Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Forecasting ART coverage in Egypt using artificial neural networks. International Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3): 161-165.
  12. Omaolo (2020). Do you think you have the coronavirus infection? Available from: https://www.omaolo.fi/palvelut/oirearviot/649.
  13. Smartson P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni & Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2020). Prediction of daily new COVID-19 cases in Italy using artificial neural networks. IJARIIE-ISSN(O)-2395-4396 Vol-6 Issue-6 2020,
  14. Smartson. P. Nyoni, Thabani Nyoni, Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2020) Prediction of new Covid-19 cases in Ghana using artificial neural networks. IJARIIE Vol-6 Issue-6             2395-4396
  15. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni & Tatenda A. Chihoho (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia using artificial neural networks, IJARIIE, 6, 6, 2395-4396
  16. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni., Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2020). Prediction of daily new Covid-19 cases in Egypt using artificial neural networks. IJARIIE-  Vol-6 Issue-6         2395-4396
  17. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni., Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2021). Forecasting daily new Covid-19 cases in Botswana using artificial neural networks. International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):177-186
  18. Statistics Finland. Corona situation review of 29 May 2020: effects of the exceptional situation are reflected in the statistics and rapid preliminary data. Available from: https://www.stat.fi/index_en.htm