Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Iceland

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Iceland. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Iceland are likely to remain between 0 and 100 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Iceland to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 340-346

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506060

References

  1. D.F. Gudbjartsson., A. Helgason., H. Jonsson., O.T. Magnusson, P. Melsted, G.L. Norddahl., J. Saemundsdottir., A. Sigurdsson., P. Sulem., A.B. Agustsdottir., B. Eiriksdottir., R. Fridriksdottir., E.E. Gardarsdottir., G. Georgsson, O.S. Gretarsdottir, K.R. Gudmundsson, T.R. Gunnarsdottir, A. Gylfason., H. Holm, B.O. Jensson., A. Jonasdottir, F. Jonsson, K.S. Josefsdottir, T. Kristjansson, D.N. Magnusdottir., L. le Roux, G. Sigmundsdottir., G. Sveinbjornsson., K.E. Sveinsdottir, M. Sveinsdottir., E.A. Thorarensen., B. Thorbjornsson., A. Löve., G. Masson., I. Jonsdottir., A.D. Möller., T. Gudnason., K.G. Kristinsson., U. Thorsteinsdottir., and K. Stefansson(2020). Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population, engl j med 382;24 nejm.org June 11, 2020
  2. Elias Eythorsson., Dadi Helgason., Ragnar Freyr Ingvarsson., Helgi K Bjornsson., Lovisa Bjork Olafsdottir., Valgerdur Bjarnadottir., Hrafnhildur Linnet Runolfsdottir., Solveig Bjarnadottir., Arnar Snaer Agustsson., Kristin Oskarsdottir., Hrafn Hliddal Thorvaldsson., Gudrun Kristjansdottir., Brynja Armannsdottir., Agnar Bjarnason., Birgir Johannsson., Olafur Gudlaugsson., Magnus Gottfredsson., Martin I Sigurdsson., Olafur S Indridason., & Runolfur Palsson (2020). Clinical spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iceland: population based cohort study, | BMJ 2020;371:m4529 | doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4529
  3. Hasell J., Ortiz-Ospina E., & Mathieu E (2020). Daily COVID-19 tests per thousand people. 2020. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-listdaily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?country=ECU+IND+IDN+SEN+KOR +USA+LTU+NZL+ISL
  4. Maradze, T. C., Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Modeling and Forecasting Child immunization against measles disease in Djibouti using artificial neural networks (ANNs). International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):449-452
  5. Maradze, T. C., Nyoni, S. P., Nyoni, T (2021). Modeling and Forecasting COVID-19 mortalities in the United States of America using artificial neural networks (ANN). International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):533-539
  6. Naizhuo Zhao., Katia Charland., Mabel Carabali., Elaine O., Nsoesie., Mathieu MaheuGiroux., Erin Rees., Mengru Yuan., Cesar Garcia Balaguera., Gloria Jaramillo Ramirez., & Kate Zinszer (2020). Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008056
  7. Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Forecasting ART coverage in Kenya using the Multilayer perceptron neural network. International Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3): 161-165.
  8. Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Forecasting ART coverage in South Africa using the Multilayer perceptron neural network. International Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3): 207-211.
  9. Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Forecasting infant mortality rate in Gabon using artificial neural networks, IRJIET, 5 (3): 592-596
  10. Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T (2021). Predicting TB incidence in Zimbabwe: Artificial neural networks reveal TB program success, IRJIET, 5(3): 380-384
  11. Smartson. P. Nyoni., Thabani Nyoni., Tatenda. A. Chihoho (2021). Forecasting daily new Covid-19 cases in Botswana using artificial neural networks. International Journal of innovations in Engineering and Technology (IRJIET), 5 (3):177-186
  12. The Directorate of Health in Iceland and the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management. COVID-19 in Iceland - statistics. 2020. https://www.covid.is/data