Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Niger

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweMr. Thabani NYONISAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, ZimbabweMr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOIndependent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 5 No 6 (2021): Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 | Pages: 539-544

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 09-07-2021

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506094

Abstract
In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Niger. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that the pandemic may disappear in Niger over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Niger to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords

ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting, Zimbabwe, corona, pandemic


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Mr. Thabani NYONI, Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, “Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Niger” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, pp 539-544, June 2021. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506094

References
  1. International Rescue Committee (2020). ‘COVID-19 in humanitarian crises: a double emergency’, Report, 9 April 2020. Available at: https://www.rescue.org/sites/default/files/document/4693/covid-19-doubleemergency-april2020.pdf.
  2. John’s Hopkins (2020). Johns Hopkins University & Medecine, Coronavirus Resource Center, Niger. Available at: https://coronavirus.jhu. Edu/region/niger.
  3. OECD/SWAC (2020), “When a Global Virus Confronts Local Realities: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in West Africa”.
  4. Olivier Marbot (2020). « Nombre de lits de réanimation et de respirateurs: où en est l’Afrique? », Jeune Afrique, 9 April 2020. Available at https://www.jeuneafrique.com/924087/societe/nombre-de-lits-de-reanimation-et-de-respirateur
  5. Rida Lyammouri & Nihal Aicha El Mquirm (2020). IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN CENTRAL SAHEL: NIGER, MALI, AND BURKINA FASO, POLICY BRIEF, Policy Center for the New South, pp 2-14.
  6. World Bank ((2017). REPUBLIC OF NIGER PRIORITIES FOR ENDING POVERTY AND BOOSTING SHARED PROSPERITY SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC Report No. 115661-NE, pp 1-26.
  7. World Bank (2020). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS
  8. World Health Organization (2020). Global Health Observatory data repository, available at https://apps.who.int/gho// data/view.main.30000.