Circulating globally, the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic continues to cause devastating mortality and is indeed a great threat
to global public health. In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to
analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia. This study is based on daily new
cases of COVID-19 in Saint Lucia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021.
The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model
reveal that the model is quite stable. The results of the study reveal that
daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia are likely to surge significantly until
they reach an equilibrium case volume of approximately 408 cases per day over
the out-of-sample period. The relevant authorities should ensure the continued
compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social
distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, alongside
vaccinations.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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Wang, D., et al. (2020). Clinical
Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel
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