Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Saint Lucia

Circulating globally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause devastating mortality and is indeed a great threat to global public health. In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Saint Lucia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model reveal that the model is quite stable. The results of the study reveal that daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia are likely to surge significantly until they reach an equilibrium case volume of approximately 408 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. The relevant authorities should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, alongside vaccinations.