The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was
applied in this piece of work, to analyze COVID-19 daily cases in Sao Tome.
This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Sao Tome for the period
1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26
March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation statistics
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is adequate.
The predictions show that daily COVID-19 cases in Sao Tome are generally likely
to hover around an equilibrium case volume of about 24 cases per day over the
out-of-sample period. However, the government of Sao Tome should ensure the
continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social
distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing as well as vaccinations.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
