Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Serbia

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new cases of COVID-19 in Serbia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Serbia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 in the country. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Serbia are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. We recommend that the Serbian government should ensure adherence to lock-down measures and also embrace the vaccination programme, while creating massive awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 545-550

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506095

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