Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Singapore

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has triggered a range of public health responses, including the need for modeling and forecasting the transmission dynamics of the pandemic. The ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Singapore. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Singapore for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model suggest that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Singapore. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Singapore are likely to decline to nil over the out-of-sample period. To ensure total public health safety, the government of Singapore should continue to ensure vaccine uptake as well as strict adherence to WHO sanitary rules and guidelines.