Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Slovakia

Abstract

The tail end of 2019 will never be forgotten due to the coming-in of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China; which has continued to threaten our lives and livelihoods. Just like any other country affected, Slovakia is struggling to halt the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 case volumes in Slovakia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Slovakia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Slovakia. The study showed that daily COVID-19 cases in Slovakia are likely to remain significantly high over the out-of-sample period. Control and preventive measures need to be strictly followed and observed all the time, especially the vaccine roll-out programme; alongside wearing of masks, regular washing of hands as well as social distancing among other things. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 567-571

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506099

References

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  3. Guan, W., et al. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China, New England Journal of Medicine, 382 (18): 1708 – 1720.