Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Slovenia

The need for forecasting the future pattern of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Predicting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Slovenia, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Slovenia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Slovenia. It is projected the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to disappear in the country around mid-April 2021.There is, however, the need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations. The public is also urged to exercise caution all the time and strictly adhere to sanitary rules established by WHO, in order to save lives.