International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Somalia

Abstract

COVID-19 continues to have a devastating effect on the health and well-being of the world population. One of the crucial steps in the fight against COVID-19 is to come up with accurate forecasting models. In this research endeavor, the ANN approach was applied to analyze confirmed COVID-19 cases in Somalia. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Somalia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied technique indicate that the model is quite stable and acceptable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Somalia are likely to range between 30 and 200 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. We recommend the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on; including vaccinations.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 461-466

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506080

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