Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Thailand

Circulating across the world, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause devastating mortality and is indeed a great threat to global public health. In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Thailand. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Thailand for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model reveal that the model is quite stable. It is projected that the COVID-19 pandemic may disappear in the country around mid-April 2021. Given the results of the study, the country should still ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, including vaccinations.