Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Timorletse

COVID-19 is indeed a serious global public health emergency. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Timorletse. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Timorletse for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Timorletse. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Timorletse are likely to remain very high at an equilibrium case volume of approximately 57 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. The government of Timorletse, through the ministry of health, should continue to implement COVID-19 control and prevention measures such as isolation, quarantine, testing and tracing, face-mask wearing, sanitization of hands, including vaccinations, amongst other measures in line with WHO guidelines.