Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Trinidad and Tobago
Abstract
The need for forecasting the future trend of
COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Forecasting the disease progression will
lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Trinidad
& Tobago, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of
accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus.
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases
in the country. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in
Trinidad and Tobago for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The
out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model
indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new
COVID-19 cases in Trinidad & Tobago. It is projected that daily COVID-19
cases in Trinidad and Tobago are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample
period. Relevant authorities, especially the ministry responsible for public
health; have a big role to play in terms of controlling the further spread of
the virus. There is need for continued implementation of control and prevention
strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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