Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Tunisia

Understanding the trend of COVID-19 is important for purposes of formulating and implementing appropriate precautionary measures to mitigate the spread of the epidemic. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Tunisia. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Tunisia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model used in this study indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in the country. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Tunisia are likely to will continue to decline and reach zero cases per day around mid April 2021.The government of Tunisia should continue to enforce adherence to the WHO sanitary rules and guidelines in order to suppress any further increase in the number of cases.